4th and Inches...Week 2

Powered by special teams, Buffalo pitched a shutout in the first half and didn't let up in a 29-10 victory over Miami.  Kicker Dan Carpenter hit on five field goals while C.J. Spiller ran back a kickoff 102 yards for a touchdown.  Sammy Watkins added the other scoring on a touchdown pass from EJ Manuel for the first of his career.  Spiller added 69 yards rushing averaging 5.8 yards per carry while Watkins totaled 117 yards receiving.  The defense had four sacks and an interception while only allowing Miami to convert 5 of 16 third downs.  EJ Manuel played well and didn't throw an interception again helping his team win by minimizing mistakes.  Great win that puts Buffalo in sole possession of first place after two weeks.  Yes it is only two weeks but when was the last time we could say that?  If feels good. 

Atlanta was not as lucky.  Cincinnati's defense held the Falcons to 309 total yards while allowing them to convert only 3 of 12 first downs and forced three turnovers.  Matt Ryan was the sole culprit as he threw three interceptions.  Bad day for him and so went the Falcons.  Atlanta averaged 5+ yards per carry but without watching the game it is hard to say in what context or is it easy to figure out why they didn't run more.  I would like to see how Cincy took Atlanta out of their game.  Ryan was only sacked two times and no quarterback hits.  Hopefully they haven't figured something out the rest of the league can mirror.  Atlanta has Tampa Bay in week three.  Hopefully they can bounce back but with the Bucs looking for their first win they are sure to be tough. 

What a week for finishes.  Kansas City doesn't convert a fourth and goal with just 15 seconds left as they tried to tie the game...  Cleveland wins on a short field goal after starting a drive from their four yard line and the New Orleans' defense blows the coverage to set up the game winning kick...  Tampa Bay isn't able to attempt a game winning field goal with eight seconds left when their receiver is injured and can't get up.  Tampa had no timeouts and the automatic 10 second run off meant the game was over...  The Jets find a way to lose when they nullify a game tying touchdown on 4th down when their sideline called a timeout.  No it wasn't coach Rex Ryan, the only person allowed to call the timeout, but a defensive end who saw the offensive coordinator signaling for a timeout.  And yes they did not convert the subsequent replaying of said 4th down...  Chicago pulled off a great comeback against San Francisco who once again did nothing in the second half.  And the Bears did this behind Jay Cutler who threw for 176 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions.  Wow.  Not a line you see from Cutler very often...  Did San Diego take it to Seattle or what?  I'll be curious what San Diego does with this win.  Can they keep the momentum at Buffalo in week three?  I say no.  Sorry Yaj...  What the heck happened to the Lions?  To fall that flat against Carolina is a huge letdown after their great performance in week one...

4th and Inches...Week 1

Buffalo and Atlanta came up with outstanding week 1 overtime wins.  Atlanta needed a late field goal to send it to overtime then capitalized on a Saints' turnover to kick yet another field goal to win the game.  Both field goals were over 50 yards.  While the Saints defense won't be confused with the '85 Bears anytime soon you have to love how the Falcons looked.  Matt Ryan looked more like Dan Marino as he threw for 448 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.  I think everyone figured the Falcons offense would be better this year but wow.  The defense though took a beating giving up 34 points and 472 total yards.  As long as they don't do that every week the Falcons could live up to my playoff prediction.  This week Atlanta plays Cincinnati and it will be a great test as their defense is very good.  Great week 1 win and love how the season is starting. 

The Bills pulled off a bona fide upset as they won in overtime against the Chicago Bears.  EJ Manuel was efficient - 16/22, 173 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.  Not great but he didn't turn over the ball too much and kept Buffalo in the game.  The real hero was the running game that averaged 5 yards per carry while racking up a total of 193 yards.  Fred Jackson led the way with 61 yards and it was his long run at the start of overtime that put Buffalo in position to kick the winning field goal.  The defense forced four turnovers to help Buffalo with the impressive win.  I love this.  This is a great start for Buffalo.  A win at home against Miami this week would be even better.  A two and 0 start might really make me believe this team could pull out a .500 record.  Exciting win and I really think me wearing my Thurman Thomas jersey Sunday was the key. 

We had garbage games on TV all day Sunday due to where we live but I received an early Christmas present.  The channels swapped to both the Atlanta and Buffalo games at the conclusion of the early contests.  That was awesome to see the last few minutes of the Atlanta game and the overtime periods for both.  You might call it excitement overload.  Great day for me!

WEEK 1 NOTES:  As good as Denver looked in the first half I'm real disappointed in how they played in the second half..  They need to play two halves or next time they may not be able to fend off their opponent's rally.  Ditto for San Francisco...  New England melted down the second half of their game as Miami took it to them with a key division win early in the season...  Look I know Seattle is good but I expected some sort of hangover after their Super Bowl victory.  That didn't happen and they look just as good as last year...  I really liked how Detroit looked while the Giants look like they'll suffer through another tough year...  Can't believe San Diego lost their game late again.  This seem like a very bad habit that has plagued them for some years now...  Kansas City looked lost or actually like they did down the stretch last year.  I thought their playoff game last year showed promise as they once again put points on the board but they were horrible Sunday. 

4th and Inches: 2014 NFL Season to Come

How can you not like Raider fans?
 

The new season is upon us and as always I like to throw out my thoughts.  I've already done my previews of the Bills and Falcons so I'll concentrate on the rest of the league.  First my picks:

AFC:  NE, Cincy, Indy Den  Wild Card:  KC, SD
NFC:  Philly, GB, NO, Sea    Wild Card:  SF, Atl

Super Bowl:  Denver vs New Orleans    Winner:  Denver

You could only be disappointed by the Broncos' performance in the Super Bowl last year.  Still I think they are the best team in the AFC.  New England is the only team I believe can challenge them but I think they fall short again.  Indy isn't quite ready to contend for the conference crown but I love Andrew Luck and think they could be the next best thing.  Cincy, KC and San Diego round out my playoff teams but none have what it takes to challenge for a Super Bowl appearance. 

In the NFC you have four top teams with Green Bay, New Orleans Seattle and San Francisco being the cream of the crop.  Seattle and that defense could very well go to their second straight Super Bowl but as it so rarely happens I'm placing my bet on the field, or rather New Orleans to be specific.  I just think Drew Brees can get New Orleans back to the Super Bowl in their second year removed from "Bounty Gate".  While Seattle will be good I don't see their defense having the same kind of year and while Russell Wilson is good he can't carry this team.  Also not sure Marshawn Lynch will be the running stud of years past to take pressure off him.  Green Bay would be the other team I can see at the top of the NFC.  Aaron Rogers may be the best overall quarterback in the league but I'm not sold on the Packer defense.  Doesn't help that Green Bay's starting center is out and they must start a rookie.  San Francisco has way too much drama around it and probably takes a step back.  Philly and Atlanta will be good stories but aren't contenders. 

Mike and Mike of ESPN morning radio show fame mentioned that a minimum of four new teams make the playoffs each year with I think a total of eight new teams making it one year.  That is amazing and pertinent because I have zero AFC playoff teams changing from last year and only one NFC team making it back after missing out last year.  So the odds are I'm wrong.  No shocker there but I really didn't see anyone else in the AFC challenging except maybe Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  The NFC is more wide open so who knows how the wild card plays out there. 

I'm really curious to see how Tampa Bay does.  I like the pickup of quarterback Josh McCown who was the best available passer available.  Getting Lovie Smith as the coach is also a huge plus for this team that has talent and I think they can win nine games if things break their way some.  I've always liked Carson Palmer as a quarterback and there are stats showing he was one of the top tier quarterbacks the last seven weeks of the 2013 season.  I'll be curious to see if he and Arizona can build on some of the momentum from their good season last year.  San Diego could win ten games if their defense improves and they tried using the draft and free agency to make it a better unit.  Phillip Rivers played great last year and if he can do the same as last year there is no reason they can't be even better. I liked Jacksonville's bold pick of Blake Bortles early in the draft.  I'm sure he'll get significant playing time this year and I can't wait to see how he does. 

4th and Inches - Falcons and Bills Lost Seasons

Buffalo is now 5-9 and have been out of contention since, well, when the season started.  I won't say it is a lost year but it has been a tough one.  I didn't even expect a .500 record but I had hopes of a few more positives.  They did beat Carolina and Baltimore within the first four games of the season to go 2-2 but it went down hill from there.  The offense is 24th in points scored while the defense is 18th in points allowed.  Nothing that will scare anyone else in the league. 

Rookie EJ Manuel has started/played 10 games.  He has completed 58% of his passes but with only 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions I'm not sure how good a season it has been.  I am glad to see more touchdowns than interceptions.  He is still young and very raw.  Hopefully he can develop into the franchise quarterback Buffalo hopes him to be.  Fred Jackson (725) and CJ Spiller (745) have split time at running back with both having over 700 yards going into the day. They are both averaging over 4 yards per carry (4.2 and 4.6).  So the running game is doing well.  I prefer having the one go to guy but I'm alright with this especially as they are both playing well.  Just wish we were seeing more scoring results from their productivity but that isn't their fault.  WR Steve Johnson and TE Scott Chandler are once again the big targets for the quarterback. Their stats aren't anything to look at but with Manuel's down year it is understandable.  Buffalo is still lacking that big #2 guy opposite Smith.  Rookie Robert Woods seems like he might be able to be that guy but there are no guarantees.

The defense is playing better with Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams leading a rush that has 49 sacks.  Buffalo is also +1 in the giveaway/takeaway category.  The defensive backs are still not great but the defense has played ok.  The season can't be judged yet.  With a new coach and quarterback we won't really know if this was a building year or not until two years down the road.  I have hope.  I still think the defense needs some upgrades, as does the offensive line and receiving corps. 

Atlanta, at 4-10, are in a worse situation after being one play from the Super Bowl last year.  Injuries have been a huge part of it.  Julio Jones (WR) and Sam Baker (OL) were big losses but other nagging injuries to Stephen Jackson (RB) and Roddy White (WR) among others just compounded the issues with the offense.  The article by Andy Benoit detailing some of the specific problems can be found here.  It is a month old but is still some great insight. While this season is lost the Falcons have next year to look forward to sans Tony Gonzalez.  That is no consolation right now when most everyone thought Atlanta would be right there in the hunt again this year.  My concerns are the fact that the defense is still very bad despite changes in the defensive backfield.  They don't get a good pass rush which puts too much pressure on everyone else on the defense.  Despite the lack of weapons Matt Ryan has also been part of the problem.  Seems like he could have made more plays at least in the games I was able to see.  Again may not have been his fault but thought he could have played better despite the issues. 

NOTES:
I knew Vincent Jackson was good but has been a stud in Tampa Bay considering the lack of quarterback quality there.  He will likely set a career high in receptions this year.  I can only imagine how Phillip Rivers wished he was still in San Diego...It is time for Jason Garrett to go in Dallas.  Last week's killer loss to Green Bay due to poor play calling has to fall to him.  And it isn't like Dallas continues to underperform consistently. If he hadn't been Jerry Jones' personal hire he would have been gone some time ago....Patriots are a team hit hard with injuries but kudos to Billicek and Brady for keeping them in first place and in the hunt for the #1 seed.  It is a testament to both those guys....Detroit is another place where a change in coach is probably warranted.  Too much talent there on both sides of the ball for them not to be sitting on top of their division especially considering the injuries to the starting quarterbacks of Green Bay and Chicago....I like the way Philly is setup.  This team may not be in a championship game this year but Nick Foles looks like he could be the real deal.  Considering the talent already around him that is a very good thing for Philadelphia....Did not see Houston falling apart this year.  I've always been too high on that team but how the heck do they look so bad this year?

4th and Inches...Bills and Falcons Win Their First Game of the Year

Buffalo beat Carolina 24-23 for their first win of the year.  Solid win which they can hopefully build on.  EJ Manuel had a good day throwing for 296 yards while completing 27 of 39 passes.  He added 1 touchdown (last second game winner) and had 1 interception.  The running game averaged 4.5 yards per carry led by CJ Spiller's 6.4 average (103 total).  Stevie Johnson caught 8 balls for 111 yards and that winning touchdown.  And that is what you want to see.  Your stars playing well.  Speaking of, Mario Williams had 4.5 sacks (Bills single game record) to help the defense which had 6 total sacks and 1 interception.  I really wish I could have watched this game.  Watching the score it started slow and then ping ponged back and forth between the teams.  From what I've read it seems the offense and defense played well.  I'm not saying they're playoff ready but it is definitely a game where the team and fans can be happy about the positives.  Buffalo gets the Jets this week in a game they can win.  A victory would really keep the good vibes flowing.  A loss to a bad Jets team will really make us wonder how good we really are. 

Atlanta cruised to a big lead early but, as has been a bad habit, let the Rams come back to make it close.  Injuries were big in this game.  Five starters were out of the lineup by halftime including Stephen Jackson, LB Sean Wetherspoon, and CB Asante Samuel.  DE Jonathan Massaquoi tore his achilles and is now out for the year.  Jackson won't play this week against Miami.  There were positives including the play of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones who had to pick up the slack with Roddey White being nicked up and was a non-factor.  Jones is a stud who I think is definitely the top receiver on this team.  With Jackson going out after scoring his first touchdown as a Falcon the running game fell apart.  Atlanta ran the ball for a total of 36 yards with an average under 3 yards per carry. Again the offense couldn't put the Rams away until late.  Injuries probably hurt but this offense is good enough and the defense didn't help allowing 21 second half points.  Miami is undefeated and this should be a good test for both teams.  Players get hurt and the really good teams find ways to keep winning.  I'm afraid this will be a let down game.  Still it was good to get that first victory and Atlanta is still poised to be one of the best teams in the league.

I'm not saying the Bears or Jay Cutler are for real but they are winning and that is what matters.  They could throw a monkey wrench in someone's playoff hopes if they continue to play well...The Redskins look done.  Their offense has been average at best and the defense didn't show up against the Packers.  After last year this is a huge step back.  They can still get it together but I'm think any realistic thoughts of making the playoffs are done....Saw quite a bit of the Chargers game and was very happy to see them pull off the upset.  The offense did well and the defense held when they had to.  It was a fun game and showed the Eagles they aren't all that quite yet...There was no excuse for the play of the 49ers.  It was horrible.  They've given Seattle the mental edge at the moment and now must play from behind in the division.  Missed opportunity to send a message that they are the team to beat in the division and the NFC. 

4th and Inches...Week 1 Falcons and Bills Lose Close Games

I know many have bemoaned how week one was full of sloppy play but I thought it was a good week.  Maybe not for my teams but it was still a good week and I just loved having football back!

Atlanta took a tough loss to the Saints.  The Falcons were in it until the end.  As good as Stephen Jackson looked his dropped touchdown catch was a negative ending to his day.  In fact he was removed for the next play of the game which was the last offensive play of the game for Atlanta.  Not that he was the only one with a key miscue.  Julio Jones fumbled a pass early in the second quarter leading to a Saints touchdown.   The offense wasn't bad but just didn't put enough points on the board while not converting key third downs.  The Saints' defense looked much better than the league worse effort they put on the field last year.  I wouldn't have believed Atlanta would only put up 17 points in this game.  The defense surprised me too. In a good way.  Considering the lack of upgrades in the off season and the Saints offense, specifically the 35 minutes of time of possession, I thought the Saints would put up more points.  Maybe game two against St. Louis will yield more positive results but overall it was just disappointing. 

Buffalo was also in the game until the end losing to the Patriots on a last minute field goal.  Yes New England isn't the New England of years past but Brady didn't look great against the Bills defense.  Always reason to cheer.  The Buffalo offense, led by rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel was good.  Specifically he ended up with a quarterback rating of 105.5 while throwing no interceptions and the running game averaged four yards per carry.  I still don't think the Bills have the very good receiver they need opposite Stevie Johnson to really make the receiving corps dangerous.  Overall a good game for Buffalo but very, very disappointing to lose this game when they had their chances to win.  Buffalo is at home against Carolina this week and I think they can win this game.  Here's to hoping for the first win of the year. 

I live in the St. Louis area so I hear quite about the Rams on the radio and always like to comment on them.  I must admit they looked good this week in their win over Arizona who also looked good with Carson Palmer at QB.  I was very skeptical going into week 1 but they really did play well.  The game against Atlanta this week in Atlanta should be a better test for them.  If Sam Bradford and his receivers can have more days close to what we saw Sunday then there is no reason to believe St. Louis can't have an above .500 record this year in a very tough NFC West. 

Peyton Manning looked awesome and I think he was still smarting from the loss to the Ravens in last year's playoffs.  And I sure wish I had him on my fantasy team - oh wait I DID!...I keep believing Phillip Rivers will be the Rivers of old but like everyone else I'm left disappointed.  I know he might not have the best weapons around him but his fourth quarter against the Houston Texans just makes you shake your head...Can the Steelers feel much worse after that horrible week one performance?...Reggie Bush really could be "The Man" in Detroit.  He just seems a good fit there...Speaking of, Philly's offense seems to fit Chip Kelly's new scheme really well.  I do wish folks would get off the whole "revolutionary" thing.  It is just a hurry up offense.  Don't get me wrong.  I like it and picked them to win their division but if Washington doesn't turn over the ball three straight times to start the game I'm not sure their offense looks quite as good...The Bears were a pleasant surprise in their win against Cincy.  The Bengals on the other hand have to wonder what happened.  Picked by many to win their division this was a huge loss since everyone else in the division also lost week one. 

4th and Inches...2012 NFL Offseason

The Atlanta Falcons made bold moves releasing Michael Turner (no surprise), Dunta Robinson, and John Abraham.  The move free up $16 million in cap space.  With defensive needs and looking forward to extending quarterback Matt Ryan and safety William Moore these look like good moves.  Like most I thought Robinson hasn't been able to live up to the big contract he signed.  Abraham was a short term answer who was injured last year and when he did play wasn't his old self.  Turner has lost his speed and was able to only manage 3.6 yards per carry last year.  Move over it just looked obvious Turner was declining.  A shame as he was very productive his first four years after signing as a free agent from the Chargers. 

 

Still the Falcons have a plan.  They are trying their best to keep tight end Tony Gonzalez from retiring.  He was important as anyone on the team last year and I think it would be a huge hit to the offense as their is no one ready to replace him.  Another running back to pair with Jacquizz Rodgers is also a priority on offense and like 90% of teams they can use some help on the offensive line.  With Abraham gone a defensive end is a must.  Dwight Freeney, formerly of the Colts, has been a rumored target.  I think he would be a great addition but I also know he will cost a pretty penny.  A linebacker, especially in the middle, would be helpful on defense as well.  I think Atlanta will look to address much of these needs through the draft but as they pick 30th in each round most players brought in will need to be developed over time.  Of course we can hope for lightning in a bottle...

 

Running back Steven Jackson is also rumored to be on Atlanta's radar.  I like Jackson but he is a running back I see on the back end of his career.  He might work well in Atlanta but I'm not sure it would be worth it as I'm thinking in two years he'll be about done even though he is 29.  He has had a great career in St. Louis and I hope he can hook on with a team that will finally get him to the playoffs but I'd be ok if the Falcons took a pass.

 

Wide receiver Mike Wallace is my pick as the best free agent out there.  He is a real burner who stretches defenses.  I would think any team would love to have him lining up at receiver.  The local talk radio folks and fans are gushing over him but I doubt Jeff Fisher and the Rams will make that big of a move.  I do think it would be beneficial for that offense which has been devoid of quality receivers for some time.  If you don't believe me ask Sam Bradford. 

 

Joe Flacco would have been next on my list but he is now the highest paid quarterback after getting paid by Baltimore.  While I've never been a huge Flacco guy I'm definitely on board with any quarterback that gets my team to the AFC Championship in three of five years.  And then he tops it off with a Super Bowl win?  Maybe his stats won't compare to to the great quarterbacks of today but the resume does. 

 

The Bill have had a pretty quiet offseason but they did put the franchise tag on safety Jairus Byrd on Friday.  It was the non exclusive franchise tag which means other teams can give offers to Byrd but the Bills can match the offer.  And if a team did sign Byrd they'd lose two first round choices.  Don't see that happening. 

 

4th and Inches - Three Weeks Down

The NFL has now completed three weeks of the season and as always there are plenty of surprises and disappointments.  I'll mainly address the Bills and Falcons here but also touch on a few other noteworthy (to me anyway) tidbits.     ATLANTA FALCONS:  They are now 3-0 and have beaten two good teams in Denver and San Diego.  No matter how you shake it 3-0 is a good start.  With the next three games against Carolina, Washington, and Oakland they have a good chance of going 6-0.  That would be outstanding but I am not expecting it though Atlanta will be expected to win all three and should be.  Their offense is playing extremely well with the "we'll take the training wheels off Matt Ryan" effort showing big dividends.  He is hitting almost 70% of his passes and has an outstanding TD to interception ratio.  Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez have all looked good in the passing offense as well.  Running back Michael Turner is the one skill player who hasn't looked that great.  He bounced back some against San Diego but needs to keep it up for the offense to stay on track.  The defense has also played well.  Overall I don't think I could ask for much more.  The schedule gets more difficult the latter part of the season so they need to build on these successes and be ready as the competition stiffens. 

 

BUFFALO BILLS:  I would have liked a better showing against the Jets but Buffalo is 2-1 and that is a good start.  With New England and San Francisco up next I'd be thrilled with a 3-2 start...but that won't happen.  That means Buffalo will have to take care of business against those teams they can beat and make a good showing against the power houses of the league.  C.J. Spiller is averaging 10 yards a carry and is the hero so far.  He was injured in Sunday's game against Cleveland so Bills' fans have to just hope it won't be too serious.  The passing game is going backwards just as it did the second half of last season.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is hitting only 57% of his passes while averaging less than 200 yards a game.  There is definite work that needs to be done there.  The defense isn't great but is good enough to keep them in games even against better teams.  Overall some positives but Buffalo definitely doesn't seem ready to compete with the big boys.  Again if they can just beat the average teams in the league consistently and throw in an upset or two this season can be a "win". 

 

RANDOM:  Who would have thought Kansas City would beat New Orleans?  Oh wait my wife did.  I figured they'd be one ticked off 0-2 team and would have took it right to the Chiefs.  They did but for only one half.....Gotta love the way Houston looks.  They seem to have it going on both sides of the ball.  Again that is an easy division and they could easily have home field advantage going into the playoffs.....And who thought Arizona would be 3-0?.....Who wouldn't have loved to see the Week 3 Detroit-Tennessee game?  Overtime, 85 total points, 46 points in the 4th quarter, 2 touchdowns in the last 18 seconds by Detroit after Matthew Stafford was hurt.  Really?  Was this the NFL or the old Joe Montana Sega video game? (Me and Deion Sanders were unbeatable!).....I've been able to watch Andrew Luck play.  He may not be lighting it up with unbelievable numbers but he looked good.  I didn't see anything that said he can't be one of the best quarterbacks in the league someday.....Who knows what New England could have done the past few years if they just had a real defense.  This has to fall on Bill Belichek as while a few defensive picks have worked those are few and far between.  Nice to have a top 5 offense but they've proved many times that their offense will only get them so far.  Ok, sometimes that is to the Super Bowl.....Horrible ending to the Packers-Seahawks game.  The replacement refs are an embarrassment.  But with all the issues I'm not sure Roger Goodell will ever back down from the negotiations with the union.  This could be a season we never forget, for all the wrong reasons.   

4th and Inches...NFL 2012 Season Preview

With one game in the books I need to get my thoughts on the upcoming season down.  I'll start with the bounty scandal.  This is so messy and just needs to go away.  With the panel overturning Roger Goodell's suspension it puts things in flux.  Sure the players are cleared to play but with the NFL looking to revisit suspensions soon I'm not sure how everyone can play with a clear head.  I do believe the players deserve some type of penalty just not as severe as the ones they got.  I'm really hoping the NFL can get it right this time so everyone can just move on.

 

ATLANTA FALCONS:  This could be the year.  I know Matt Ryan and the Falcons have caught much flack for not winning a playoff game the past three years.  Still they are 32 and 16 in that time frame.  This team is good and the offense brings back all the stars with Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez leading the way.  Rumor has it the offense will open up the passing game this year and I also expect second year running back Jacquizz Rogers to get the ball more.  I think he can be good as a receiver and also help keep Turner fresh.  Cornerback Asante Samuel was a huge addition in the off season.  Hopefully it will help put pressure on the opposing team's passing game and allow the team to improve on the 18th in the NFL standings for points given up per game.  Atlanta makes the playoffs and I think they are a 50-50 bet to win the NFC South.

 

 

BUFFALO BILLS:  Buffalo's acquisition of Mario is huge.  I think he could be good for one extra win this year.  Otherwise I'm not real sure what to expect.  Running back Fred Jackson is coming off an injury and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick battled injuries last year which many attribute to his swoon in the second half of the year.  Stevie Johnson is a solid number one receiver and David Nelson will do fine on the other side but I'm not sure that'll be enough.  The offensive line still needs help and that is always a recipe for disaster.  The defense was 30th in points allowed in 2011.  I think it begins and ends there.  Not sure Williams is enough to make everything good.  Buffalo will need the secondary to step up or no matter what the offense does they'll always be playing from behind.  Don't be surprised if Buffalo gets 8 eight wins but I will say I think the Jets will falter again this year so they should be able to get four wins out of the division alone. 

 

ST LOUIS RAMS:  I'm only typing about the Rams because they are the local team and I hear and talk about them quite a bit.  Bringing in Steve Fisher as coach was a great move.  Still they have a long ways to go.  I am befuddled because they have a quarterback in Sam Bradford with whom they believe is the long term answer but for some reason they won't get him anyone to throw to.  Everyone knows they are a run first team but I'm not sure anyone will respect the pass until they get a receiver who can make a defense pay. 

 

RANDOM:  The Patriots should win their division but at some point you'd think the offensive line troubles and bad defensive draft picks will catch up to them.  Maybe this is the year...Houston must be licking their lips.  They are poised for a big year if everyone stays healthy and should win all six games against their division foes...I was shocked to see Cincy let Cedric Benson walk but think they made a great pickup with BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  I think he can put up some major yards if he gets the carries a normal back would get, something he didn't have the luxury of in New England...The AFC West could be the best division going this year.  Oakland has Carson Palmer with a training camp under his belt, Peyton is in Denver, the Chiefs could be a huge surprise if Matt Cassel plays up to expectations, and the Chargers still have Phillip Rivers so I'll never count them out...

 

MY PICKS: 

NFC - Division Winners:  Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco

           Wild Cards:  New Orleans, Detroit

 

AFC - Division Winners:  New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver

           Wild Cards:  Kansas City, Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl:  Green Bay vs Baltimore

 

Green Bay wins!  I think Green Bay is the best team all around.  Their defense is better than the 19th ranked D they had last year and their offense is stacked.  Baltimore will give them a good test but I don't think it will be that close.  

4th and inches...Free Agency

First off "4th and inches..." will be my tag line for when I want to throw out randomness about the NFL.  Tag lines can be cliche but I like it and this initial entry is about the first weeks of free agency.  It all begins and ends with Peyton Manning.  He signed with Denver for 5 years and $96 million.  Wow.  I like this move.  San Francisco may have been the team more ready to compete for the Super Bowl but I like it.  Some of it has to do with the pairing of him and executive/former great John Elway.  You know Elway and coach John Fox are happy to get past the Tim Tebow era and develop a game plan involving the passing game.  Will Manning be ready?  Yes.  Will he be 100%?  Who knows but an 80% healthy Manning still makes him a top ten quarterback in this league and should make Denver a team ready to challenge for a division crown each year.  Some say they must win a Super Bowl to justify this signing but I don't agree.  I think Manning will charge the fanbase like it hasn't been since Elway was under center.  A Super Bowl win would just be icing on the cake.

Tampa Bay also made a big splash signing Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks and Eric Wright right out of the gates.  If Josh Freeman is for real this team could make some noise in their division as Atlanta's free agency news is all bad as players are walking left and right and the Saints don't even have a head coach right now.

New England and Washington ensured they won't be wanting for wide receivers with the Pats signing three and Washington two.  Overall New England has been one of the busiest teams.  They haven't signed the sexiest free agents out there but as is their M.O. they are stock piling bodies in the hope they can get the best out of players other teams didn't want. 

The Bears grabbed WR Brandon Marshall for a pair of third round picks.  Assuming he isn't in jail or suspended next season this is a great pickup.  Yes, he wasn't a free agent but I'll lump it in here anyway.  Chicago also picked up running back Michael Bush and quarterback Jason Campbell, both from Oakland.  This gives them quality backups at positions in which the team has had a glaring need in the recent past. 

I am surprise restricted free agent wide receiver Mike Wallace still hasn't received an offer.  Any team signing him would have to give up a first round pick but he is only 25 and is a very fast receiver who has put up very big numbers the last two years.  He wouldn't be a rookie coming out of college having to learn the ropes.  I think he could step right in and make any passing game quite a bit better right now.  Pittsburgh would have the right to match any offer but they don't have a great amount of cap space so I think he can be had at the right price. 

Quick Hits:  Didn't see Reggie Wayne returning to the Colts but the comfort of staying with Indy may have been his priority.  San Diego also made smart signings in Le'Ron McClain, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal, and Randy McMichael just to name a few of their nine signings.  St. Louis spread their financial wings in signing cornerback Cortland Finnegan and center Scott Wells.