Trail Blazers Beat Rockets in Seven and Will Play Spurs in the Second Round

Portland edged out Houston thanks to a spectacular last second shot to win their first round matchup with the Rockets.  I thought this would be a close series and it didn't disappoint.  Damian Lillard's three as time expired in game six closed out a series that was hard foughtand any Portland fan, to include myself, has to be happy about.  You wanted Portland to close this out at home in game six and watched teams like Atlanta, Memphis and Toronto fail to do so only to lose in seven.  This was huge.  The starting five of the Trail Blazers played well with Lopez the only starter not to average 15 points or more per game.  And he still had a good series averaging 9 points, 8 boards and almost 3 blocks per game.  Of course the stars are Aldridge (29/11/2.7 blks) and Lillard (25/6/6.7 asts).  This is what you want to see.  Those guys stepping up and taking it to the opponent come playoff time especially when you have a bench that won't give you a ton of quality minutes (only Mo Williams had more that 13 minutes a game off the bench with 25 per).  While I didn't get to see every minute of every game I did get to see quite a bit and it was great.  I really thought they played as a team.  Didn't mean they were always in sync but I believe the starting five can hang with just about anyone out there. 

Now they move on to play the Spurs.  I figured Dallas would only get one victory at best but the Mavericks took it to San Antonio who had to win the series in seven games.  Not sure exactly what to take out of that.  It could really irritate them, hopefully have worn them out or not affect them at all.  It seems like a crap shoot when determining what a series like that will do to a team.  Considering the veterans and coach I'd say it could be the former.  No matter I think this will be another good series.  I'd love to say Portland wins but the Portland stars are matched up with guys of equal talent and savvy.  While Tim Duncan may not be better than LaMarcus Aldridge at this point in his career I am a big believer in Tim and think it will be a completely different series for Aldridge than what we saw in round one.  Houston didn't have a great matchup and Aldridge took advantage.  Duncan is that guy that has been around forever and can make the best of power forwards look bad.  Lillard will be matched up against Tony Parker who can match his intensity and can play defense.  Lillard can run him around the floor and will get his assists but he isn't the best defensive point guard around so this could be tough.  I think it is a push at the other positions.  That said the edge goes to San Antonio who also has a deeper bench (they had eight players average 16 minutes in round 1).  Hopefully I'm jinxing Yaz and the Spurs.  Nothing personal my friend.  I expect some close games but again the veteran presence and coaching of the Spurs should make this a six game series with the Spurs advancing.  Hopefully Portland can rise to the challenge building off what they did last series and maybe pull out the upset.  That is the fun part.  We won't know until the games are played... 

Donald Sterling Banned for Life

Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling was banned for life and fined $2.5 million dollars for racist comments he made in a conversation recorded by his "assistant".  No matter how these comments got out they are from a bygone era that must never return.  The NBA commissioner's decision to ban Sterling, fine him and also seek to have the other owners vote to force him out is the right decision.  I do get Mark Cuban's comments about being cautious about doing such a thing and the precedent it sets but even Cuban has sided with commissioner Adam Silver on this.  I would be surprised if any owners don't vote Sterling out.  Would you want to be that guy defending his position?  No way.  I applaud Silver for acting so quickly though the perceived threat of NBA players going as far as not playing in playoff games I'm sure helped him speed up the process.  Again good on the NBA.  I'm just hoping this doesn't drag out into the courts for years.  It would be nice to see this settled prior to next season's tipoff. 

2014 NBA Playoff Preview

I wanted to take a quick look at all the matchups in round one of the NBA Playoffs.  I won't get too analytical or too long winded but I think the playoffs are intriguing this year.  That said I'm not sure I see many upsets but that doesn't mean the first round is short on great matchups.  And for all the grief the Eastern Conference has gotten this season the Atlanta Hawks are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record.  The Western Conference is better but I think five of the teams from the East would be competitive in a matchup against their Western rivals.  On to the games...

Pacers-Hawks - See here for my thoughts on the Hawks. 

Heat-Bobcats - I'm a big Al Jefferson guy but Charlotte has little else on this team and will probably bow out in four games against Miami.  It shouldn't diminish the fact that this team is only two years removed from a seven win effort in the strike shortened season. 

Raptors-Nets - Name a starter on the Raptors...name any player on the Raptors...  Rudy Gay!  Jose Calderon!  Oh wait they were both traded...  This team probably doesn't get any respect but it tough as you can see.  Brooklyn is the vogue pick here with their late season surge but it is hard to argue that the Nets aren't the better team.  I'd like to see Toronto win this series but it will be tough unless Brooklyn remembers their team remembers they are actually old and should be getting tired about this time of the year.  I say this could be a seven game thriller.

Bulls-Wizards - Wizards are another team that I'd like to see come away with a series win but Chicago probably won't sweat too much while taking this series.  I'll be curious how star youngster John Wall plays in his first playoff series and the teams first post season appearance since the 2007-2008 season.

Spurs-Mavericks - Yaj has to be stoked with how well the Spurs are playing.  I know I am.  While Dallas has some good players anchored by Dirk Nowitzki the Spurs probably only have one loss in them against Dallas. 

Thunder-Grizzlies - Oklahoma City is the real deal and should compete for the Western Conference title.  Too much talent here though I think the Griz will play big and take a game from the Thunder.

Clippers-Warriors - Golden State looked so good early in the year.  They came back down to earth, remembered they aren't that good on defense, and now must play at least the first round without Andrew Bogut.  I still think they can steal two games from Los Angeles but Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan won't let the Clippers lose this series.

Rockets-Trail Blazers - My thoughts on this series are here.

Portland Trail Blazers to Play Houston Rockets in Round 1 of the Playoffs

Game 1 of the Blazers - Rockets first round seven game series is set for this Sunday in Houston.  Portland had a very good year winning 53 games and looking good doing it.  Portland has studs LaMarcus Aldridge (PF) and Damian Lillard (PG) leading the way.  Both are stars and both had career years.  But they also had a very good supporting staff in the starting lineup.  Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF) and Robin Lopez (C) all had good years making this one of the best starting fives Portland has seen in years.  The bench is where things get dicey with point guard Mo Williams being the best of a very thin group.  Still I expect Portland to rely heavily on their starting unit.

 

Houston will throw out a starting five of James Harden (SG), Dwight Howard (C), Chandler Parsons (SF), Terrance Jones (PF) and either Patrick Beverly or Jeremy Lin at the point.  Their bench feels a bit stronger but I may be overrating them a bit.  I do like what Aaron Brooks (SG) and Omar Asik (C), when motivated, bring to the game.   Harden is probably the best shooting guard in the game and Howard is top three among centers.  I'm a big Parsons fan.  He is a wing guy who spreads the floor with 37% three point shooting, can handle the ball and doesn't turn the ball over (1.9 per game) while playing with a high motor. 

 

Portland's short coming will be defense as it has been all year.  Stats make the two teams close in terms of defense but Portland doesn't pass the eye test.  Lillard for all his talent hasn't developed into a good defensive player and Aldridge and Lopez while ok on defense aren't shut down guys.  Batum is a very good defender but unfortunately won't be playing Harden.  I think the key will be stopping Harden.  I think Howard will get his though Lopez should play him tough.  It is a matter of how much Harden controls the game.  If he is hitting in the flow of the game allowing the offense to stay in rhythm it will be hard for Portland to win.

 

It sounds like I'm painting  a picture where Portland loses this series and maybe I am.  I'm not convinced Houston wins this series.  They do have home court and Portland hasn't gotten past the first round in 14 years but the Trail Blazers have a team that can win any given night.  But I can't go with my heart no matter how much I want to.  I truly think James Harden is the type of difference maker who can carry his team and I think that will be the difference in this series.  Combined with the issues on defense Portland has I think Houston wins the series.  I can see the it going seven games and each could come down to the last possession.  I hope the ball bounces Portland's way a few times and they can steal a few games to take the series.  No matter I expect a hard fought matchup that should be fun to watch.   

Atlanta Hawks Clinch Playoff Spot

The Atlanta Hawks clinched the #8 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference with a surprising win over the Miami Heat this weekend.  While I like any fan am excited to see their team go to the playoffs I have to admit I was caught up in the thought of Atlanta getting one of the young phenoms in the upcoming draft.  I mean even GM Danny Ferry doesn't think it is such a bad idea.  Maybe it isn't right to think such things but what is the #8 seed going to get us?

I do think we can win a game against the Pacers but now that we've irritated the Heat I'm not sure we'd get a win in a series with them.  Either way the odds are stacked against an upset.  This team had dealt with so many injuries and while they have some decent parts in Paul Milsap, Jeff Teague, and Kyle Korver, Atlanta doesn't have "that guy" that can carry the team when need be. 

Back to the draft...  That is where my hope for that high draft pick came in.  This lineup needs a dynamic wing player...can you say Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker?  Yes the chances of landing one of those two would be remote but sometimes as a fan hope is all you have.  I like Milsap, Teague, and Korver and with stud Al Horford coming back next year this is a solid lineup that can get the 6th or even 5th seed but there needs to be that difference maker on the team.  A guy who can carry the Hawks on their back.  Louis Williams and DeMarre Carroll just aren't one of those guys. 

For now I'll be excited for the Hawks but only five #8 seeds have won a first round matchup.  I'm just not convinced Atlanta will be team number six when all is said and done.  Still I have to be happy for the players and the team.  It has been a tough year.  After playing well enough to look like a possible #4 seed, injuries decimated this team.  They also endured a 1 and 14 stretch at one point.  But they made it.  That is what matters.  The Hawks can still grab the player I described above with a mid round pick.  Just might take a little more luck and I'm a fan so I'll always have hope...if nothing else...

Portland Trail Blazers Struggles

Lopez, Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Lillard

After going 31 and 10 early in the season Portland has struggled and now stand at 37-18.  This includes being 6 and 9 in their last 15 after a 5 game winning streak in mid-January.  Hot early Portland looked like they could compete with the big boys of the Western Conference.  Now, not so much but it shouldn't diminish what they've accomplished.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard made the all-star game this month and both deserved their selections.  

 

Aldridge (23.9 pts, 11.9 rebs, 2.8 asts - all career highs) has been a huge part of the Trail Blazers' success due to his outstanding play.  He is the rock that all teams want in their lineup every night.  Having Lillard (21, 3.6, 5.8) as one of the top points guards beside him has been a mojor part of his and the rest of the team's success.  Lillard can score, ensure the offense runs well and has shown he can close out games as he did in back-to-back games against Detroit and Cleveland.  While those two are definitely the main reasons for the team's success others are also doing their part.  SG Wesley Matthews is averaging a career high 16 points, and shooting well, while C Robin Lopez is having a career year.  SF Nicolas Batum is having a solid year and PG Mo Williams is having a playing great coming off the bench.  I like the mix this team has with their bigs and smalls who can all shoot the rock.  Portland has gotten what they had hoped from the additions of Lopez and Williams in the off season while Aldridge and Lillard have only gotten better. 

 

So while all looks good this team is still struggling.  Some of it has been the schedule getting tougher and some of it has been some injuries of late.  The defense still isn't on par with even average teams in the league (27th in the league) so it helps to have the best scoring offense.  I haven't been able to see the Blazers much so I don't have any great insight.  But just on what I have seen, read about and can see in the box scores I would like to see more from Dorrell Wright coming off the bench at SF.  Bench scoring is coming from Williams and rookie SG C.J. McCollum.  Wright's 4 points a game isn't doing much for the team especially considering he is shooting around 36%.  But really the team defense has to improve for Portland to be taken seriously.  This falls squarely on the shoulders of coach Terry Stotts.  Portland may not have great defenders but they have very good athletes and it is the job of the coach to design a scheme that allows them to succeed on defense.  Four of Portland's next five games are at home and are all winnable.  Hopefuly we'll see some improvement. 

 

This is a good team.  Not great but very good.  Unfortunately the Western Conference is stacked so it is all the more important that this team learn to play defense as well as get contributions from every player up and down the lineup.  If they don't the season will but a foot note and a we'll see a quick ouster from the playoffs.  Not trying to be negative but while the team is exceeding my expectations, the Blazers have 6 first round losses to show for the last 13 seasons which include 6 seasons of 48 or more wins.  So we've seen it before and I think there is pressure to not only have a good regular season but to also do well in the playoffs.  For now I'll enjoy the season and the success they are having. 

Atlanta Hawks - 23-20 and Third Seed In the East - Surprise or Not?

The Atlanta Hawks are 23-20 and as of tonight the 3rd seed in the Eastern conference.  Before the season I wouldn't say this is too surprising.  I would have said it was surprising if I'd known they would have to play without Al Horford since the 26th of December.  You'll say they are only 7-7 since then.  While true I'd say I would expect them to be 5-9 in that timeframe at best and surely wouldn't expect them to beat Miami during that stretch. 

No matter how they got to this point Atlanta fans have to be happy.  The loss of Horford could have been devastating to a team their lack of big man depth.  Mike Scott and Pero Antic are not very scary and really not that productive except in reserve rolls.  Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague have carried this team.  All the while getting little from anyone else.  Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll will get you a combined 20 points a game which isn't saying anything.  Louis Williams hasn't found his rhythm shooting only 37% total (though 36% from three) while averaging just over nine points a game. 

I'll be happy to see Horford back.  The Hawks really need him anchoring the middle and giving them 18 and 9 a night.  To be honest I'd love to see Atlanta add a scorer (Melo anyone?).  They really don't have anything going at small forward or the shooting guard position.  Someone who could take over a game at either of those spots.  But alas Atlanta really doesn't have anything to give up in a trade so I doubt we'll see any big trades come their way. 

Bottom line is I'm happy where they are at relative to the roster they have.  I know they are not built to contend with Indiana or Miami in the East or any of the many good teams in the West.  Hopefully they can improve themselves in a trade but I won't hold my breath.  Right now I think a first round win would be a big positive for this team.  Just not sure they can do it.  Will be curious to see how the rest of the season shakes out.   

Portland Trail Blazers 2013-2014 Preview

Last year Portland had a disappointing season on their way to 33 wins good for 11th in the Western Conference.  They ended the season with a disastrous 13 game losing streak.  Didn't leave anyone much to hang their hat on.  In the offseason they made it a priority to shore up their bench and their defense which were at the heart of the issues last year. 

Damon Lillard was the rookie of the year and deservedly so.  He was not a good defender but his 19 points and 6.5 assists a game were great as he showed he was worthy of a top pick in last year's draft.  His ability to hit the three (36%) is a great attribute which helps stretch the floor.  Mo Williams will be his backup and may look to score before passing but should be a solid backup.

Wesley Matthews will start at the shooting guard.  Matthews is a talent but I want to see more than 14 points per game from him.  He shoots the three at a 39% clip.  Depending on how rookie C.J. McCollum progresses Matthews may not get the minutes he needs to be a big time scorer.  He will have the early part of the season while McCollum recovers from an injury to solidify his spot in the starting lineup.  McCollum should be a nice addition to the team with big upside if the scouting reports are correct. 

Nicolas Batum will play at small forward with new addition Dorrell Wright backing him up.  Batum is making big money ($11M) and I'd like to see him take some of the pressure off Aldridge by scoring more and improving on his 43% shooting.  He is also good from behind the arc shooting 37%.  Wright isn't as good defensively but should be a quality guy off the bench. 

 LaMarcus Aldridge had his normal stellar year of 21 points and 9 rebounds a game while shooting 48%.  He will get, and deserves, the bulk of the minutes at the four.  They don't have much in a backup here.  Aldridge is key to this team but I think if Matthews and Batum can step up their games then he could play a little looser and play even better even if it is at the expense of some stats. 

Robin Lopez was brought in to anchor the center position after J.J. Hickson left after the season.  Lopez won't win defensive player of the year but is a big body who I hope can defend the rim better than the undersized Hickson.  Not sure he can get 10 rebounds a game like J.J. but for now I'm just hoping he can bring some size to the middle.  Would have liked to see a quality backup here who could also play behind Aldridge but this is one position where I think Portland is thin.

I see no reason why this team can't get to 43 wins and a playoff spot.  They'll be fighting for the #8 seed but it is definitely doable.  This may not be the year they make much noise in the playoffs if they can make it but they are on the right track.  Great young talent here and if they can gel this team can be very good.  I hope the additions through the draft and free agency will make a difference on the bench.  Again, no reason this can't be a good team and I expect a winning record come the end of the year. 

 

Atlanta Hawks 2013-2014 Preview

Atlanta cruised to a 44 win season last year but I think the season was seen as a disappointment to fans.  After winning 53 games in the 09-10 (and I complained then about not getting past the second round - go figure) the Hawks have seen Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams and Josh Smith leave the team for "greener pastures".  I think fans would be more than happy with seeing the second round right now.  I, like many, were ok with all three leaving and still think Danny Ferry made one of the best all-time deals when he was able to move Johnson not to mention getting Utah to take on Williams' deal.  Those guys were good but to some extent limited the team.  While rebuilding may not be the right term, this team is definitely moving in a different direction.  

This team begins and ends with Jeff Teague at the point.  Atlanta matched Milwaukee's offer to Teague and now he must earn the big contract.  Teague is the Hawks' best point guard they've had in years and I'm glad they kept him around.  He won't have to share the ball with Josh Smith this year so he has a great chance at surpassing his 7.2 assists from last year.  Everyone is high on the rookie from Germany Dennis Schroeder who will backup Teague.  I don't know much about him but I'll take quality depth and the point anytime.  Lou Williams will get the bulk of the time at shooting guard.  He got injured last year but everyone is high on him and expects him to be the scorer they need in the backcourt.  He shot 37% from behind the arc and averaged 14 points per game.  First round pick John Jenkins is expected to challenge for big minutes.  He is 6-4 and can shoot the three.  Again it looks like their could be some quality depth at this position. 

Al Horford anchors the center spot once again.  A natural power forward, he is a bit undersized, but you will be hard pressed to find a harder worker which is why he was able to average 17 and 10 last year and make the all-star team.  Paul Millsap was brought in from Utah to fill the power forward role.  This was a great signing.  He is a tough down low and can hit the boards.  He fits well besides Horford on the front line.  Elton Brand was brought in as a free agent and will get minutes at both the 4 and the 5.  He isn't an all-star anymore but I would think he can provide quality minutes off the bench.  Kyle Korver will probably start at small forward.  He can hit the 3 but don't ask for any defense from him.  Still spreading out the defense will help the bigs down low by creating more space.  DeMarre Carroll (another ex-Jazz player) will get minutes as well at this position.  An athletic kid who may be asked to play defense when needed at small forward.

The biggest acquisition may be new coach Mike Budenholzer who comes from San Antonio.  Hopefully he can bring some of his winning ways from the Spurs.  Atlanta definitely needs someone who can take Atlanta to the next level. They've been a team that can make the playoffs.  Now they need to make some noise once they get there.  Coaching will be a big part to that.

I like this team as built especially the depth they have.  Not a knock, but not having Josh Smith handling the ball should help Jeff Teague and the rest of the offense be more comfortable in their rolls.  Jeff Teague must be at least as good as he was last year and be able to involve everyone in the new offensive schemes brought in by Budenholzer.  I won't expect huge strides this year but I think they can win 46 games and hopefully land a number four seed.  Might be asking for a bit too much  but again I like the makeup of this team.  We'll see how all the changes look on the court.